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Flirting with Models

Research Library of Newfound Research

By Corey Hoffstein

On July 26, 2013

One of the greatest critiques of tactical strategies is their ability to be "whipsawed" -- bad timing decisions that leads to performance bleed due to overweight positions in underperforming assets. These events are often easy to pick out and easy to criticize as failures.

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: they've had a number of whipsaw events -- particularly in 2010-2011 that led to dramatic underperformance of the SP 500.

In my opinion, investors unfairly criticize such events, viewing the relative underperformance as a one-off cost. I take a different view: whipsaw is the "insurance premium" paid by tactical strategies to allow for the capital protection (see Stadion in 2008, for example). While the "payment" tends to come in large, lump sums, we should consider the cost over full market cycles. In that way, we can create an apples-to-apples comparison to other methodologies for protecting capital -- such as the options (or "insurance") market.

So how much would protection cost us in the options market? As a simple evaluation method, I put together a 60/40 SPY/AGG portfolio and buy different levels of VXX -- the short-term VIX futures ETN. Technically, buying VXX is buying volatility protection -- but I think it serves as a good enough "tail hedge" for this simple evaluation. The strategies are rebalanced monthly. We can see the equity curves below.

What we see is dramatic performance and protection differences between the different allocation levels. The protection during the bear market is graphed below:But how much does this protection cost us? To evaluate the implicit insurance premium we are paying, we compute performance drag from 2010 - Present versus the benchmark 60/40. We leave out 2008 and 2009 because we consider them to be anomalous markets where the insurance was realized. What we are trying to measure is the annualized cost innormal markets if the insurance is not exercised. Therefore, we leave those years out.

Put in this light, the "whipsaw" costs of Stadion do not seem that bad. Protection similar to a 15% VXX position with close to only half the performance drag.

Now, the strict difference here is that when insurance is actually purchased, it is guaranteed to protect. With Stadion, there is an extra risk premium that we should consider, since there is no guarantee that the tactical risk management will work. On the other hand, when buying options, you typically buy out-of-the-money puts (and potentially sell calls to help finance). Depending on how the market trends, the insurance may never be triggered and we could still be left with a huge loss. For example, consider buying 2.5% OTM puts every month, and having the market go down 2.49% every month. Not only do we pay the cost of insurance that we never get to exercise, but we rack up a 26% annual loss. Everything has its risks.

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. The best cannabis for arthritisdepends upon the type of arthritis (rheumatoid, osteo, or psoriatic), the site of the ailment, and the primary symptom the individual is attempting to treat. is the cannabinoid most sought after for rheumatoid arthritis, due to its ability to both relieve inflammation and act as an immunosuppressant. If you experience stiffness and pain caused by these symptoms, then CBD-rich topicals and oral tinctures or capsules are an excellent choice. The anti-inflammatory potential minimizes existing discomfort, while the immune-suppressant quality can prevent worsening outbreaks. As we discuss in our general dosing article, when you begin to treat your arthritis with CBD-based medications, it is best to start with a high dose (up to 20 mg), and then reduce the dosage until you reach the minimum amount that still provides relief. Unlike THC-rich cannabis, high CBD products will not provoke any psychoactive reaction, so there is no danger in taking a large dose. (The exception to this lies with individuals who are taking anti-coagulant medication along with cannabis. If you have a prescription for warfarin or another anti-coagulant, be sure to let a doctor or FARM staff member know before you being your cannabis treatment.) If the anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressant qualities of CBD just don’t cut it, you may want to turn to cannabis products with a higher percentage of , which will act as a more straight-forward painkiller. In general, individuals with rheumatoid arthritis see the best results with CBD, while those with osteoarthritis tend to prefer THC. If you plan to use THC to treat your arthritis pain, your budtender will recommend a very low dose to begin, and you will slowly increase until you reach the lowest dose that provides the necessary relief.

Treating Arthritis with Cannabis

FARM stocks various tried-and-true arthritis treatments including balms and topicals. Most of the store brand topicals are made with emu oil, which has recently been lauded for its beneficial effect on headaches, skin conditions, and muscle and joint pain. Essential oils promise additional healing and delicious scents. FARM offers herbal and floral-infused lotions, as well as the popular Earth Dragon Organics topicals (in three scents and two sizes – 15 and 50 ml), and Miss Envy’s minty Buddha Buddah , and unscented bath bombs.

I’ve included measurements below so I could give a calorie count, but the wonderful thing about this recipe is that you don’t have to measure anything if you don’t want to. Eyeballing the ingredients worksjust fine and means you don’t have to wash any extra measuring cups or spoons.

And if you don’t have an oven-safe skillet or are making more chicken than will fit in askillet, you can just skip the searing step and bake the chicken in a casserole dish. This dish is all about making your like easy and delicious!

I think Salsa Chickenmight be the most made recipe in my arsenal, because aside from making it whenever I am too lazy to cook something else, I also regularly schedule it on my menu sinceit’s a genuinely delicious chicken dinner.

The salsa reduces downin the oven, making it perfect for spooning over rice on the side, and the chicken comes out moist and perfect every time. All you have to do is steam some broccoli or toss together a quick side salad and dinner is DONE.

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, Homemade Carnitas , and Kemstone Rose Gold Plated Green Colorful Cubic Zirconia Flower Brooch Pin for Women SmfkQtBzd
.

As written, this Salsa Chickenrecipe generously serves two. To change the recipe yield, hover over the number of servings (or click if you are on mobile) and slide the slider–no preparation changes are necessary for doubling.

5 from 1 vote

Easy Salsa Chicken for Two

This cheesy Salsa Chicken for Two is the easiest homemade chicken dinner ever. No cutting or measuring needed and made all in one pan!

Course Dinner
Total Time 30 minutes
Servings 2
Calories 422 kcal
Author Tracy

Special Equipment

Salsa Chicken

Preheat your oven to 400°F.
Sprinkle both sides of your chicken breasts with salt, pepper, and taco seasoning. Heat a medium to large oven-safe skillet over medium-high heat. Grease with cooking spray or a drizzle of your favorite cooking oil. Once hot, add chicken breasts to the pan and cook until well-browned. Flip the breasts and repeat.

Once both sides of the breasts are browned, remove pan from heat and pour salsa over the top of the chicken. Place pan in the oven and bake for 15 to 25 minutes (the size of your chicken breasts will have a dramatic effect on cooking time), until an instant-read thermometer inserted into the center of the chicken reads 150°F.

Sprinkle cheese over the top and cook for another 5 to 10 minutes, until the chicken reaches 160°F. Remove from the oven and allow chicken to rest for 5 minutes before serving. Spoon extra salsa from the pan over white rice and serve with steamed green beans or broccoli and enjoy!

Recipe Notes

*If you don't have taco seasoning, just sprinkle on a little chili powder and cumin.

*If using a very thick, chunky salsa, you can add a couple tablespoons of water or chicken broth over the top to keep the juices in the pan from burning.

This post may contain affiliate links, which means I receive a small commission if you make a purchase using them. There is absolutely no additional cost to you and it helps keep the lights on around here/pay my student loans.

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